Talkin‘ Politics & Religion Without Killin‘ Each Other

Two weeks out, Silver Bulletin's forecast gives Democrats a 75% chance to win the Senate. But as our guest reminds us, one in four chances happen all the time. Corey sits down with Eli McKown-Dawson, senior elections analyst at Silver Bulletin, to look under the hood of the midterm forecast. They cover how polls get weighted, why a four-point lead can mean a 90% chance to win, and go state by state through the Senate map, from Texas and Maine to Kansas and Nebraska. Calls to Action ✅ Leave

Twenty years in the pulpit. Ten years of disillusionment. He says he’s better for it. Pat Kahnke cast his first vote for Ronald Reagan, spoke on behalf of the pro-life movement, and picked his church because he walked in on Pro-Life Sunday. Then 2016 sent him back to rethink all of it. In this Substack Live conversation, Corey and Pat talk about why the “binary choice” argument falls apart in the primaries, what “if love is obedience” says about authoritarian faith, the Somali community and the

Last time we promised unreasonably irresponsible midterm predictions and got sidetracked. This time we actually make the calls. Chip is back at Doc’s Inn for another round of “To the Republic... To the Pub.” First comes a fight over whether the polls lean left, what Nate Silver actually said in 2016, and whether 2024 Trump voters are staying put. Then the House, and the Senate map race by race, from Georgia to a wild card in Nebraska. Also featured: a Kalshi bet, a Montblanc pen, and a shot ridi

He almost never votes for Democrats. This year, he’s making an exception. Matt K. Lewis has spent his career on the right. He’s won a Buckley Award, he was named CPAC Blogger of the Year, and he once wanted to grow up to be Alex P. Keaton. In this Substack Live conversation, Corey and Matt dig into why he’s voting blue in 2026, how Trump broke up his own coalition, the Senate races worth watching four weeks out, and what both parties could learn from a wave, if one comes. Calls to Action ✅ Leav

For ten years, Pete Wehner's email subject line for every new outrage was "No bottom means no bottom." Now he and Jon Rauch think they may have found one. Jonathan Rauch and Peter Wehner join Corey to talk about their New York Times essay, "Trump Has Finally Lost the Plot." They lay out where Trump succeeded, where his effort to remake American society failed, and why Minneapolis, the courts, and his falling approval numbers made the difference. Jon stayed for some bonus time to talk about when

Everyone says the polls blew it. Carl Allen says they didn't, and his research shows candidates averaging 49% or higher in well-polled races have won 98% of the time since 2004. Then we go race by race: Texas, Ohio, Maine, and two red states that could shock everyone on election night. Recorded live on Substack, this conversation with data analyst Carl Allen starts with why polls aren't predictions and ends with a tour of the 2026 Senate map, with real poll averages and prediction market odds pu